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Okay, people. It’s July. The draft is behind us, the HR Derby is complete, and the All-Star Game is over. That means it’s officially, completely, and totally MLB trade season. There’s nothing else standing between teams and the deals they want to complete other than their courage.
2024 MLB Trade Deadline
As a reminder, the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline is on Tuesday, July 30 at 5 pm CT. Historically, Jed Hoyer likes to wait as long as possible to make decisions, including right up until the bell rings. But that’s perhaps especially true this season, given the trajectory of the Cubs before the All-Star break.
Where Do the Cubs Stand?
While it’s true the Cubs (47-51) are still in last place of the NL Central, it’s also true that they’re only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot with a roster not built to sell and a minor league organization overflowing with top-100 prospects relative to their peers. It’s also true that the Cubs had gotten moderately hot heading into the break, winning 8 of their last 11 games, and that they have one of the easier remaining schedules in all of baseball.
Indeed, according to MLB Tankathon, the collective record of the Cubs’ remaining opponents (.493) is tied for the fourth lowest in the National League, with only the Braves (.492), Padres (.487), and Giants (.479) facing a weaker slate.
Unfortunately, those are all teams vying for the same wild card slot the Cubs are likely eyeing. And also, I’d argue that the Cubs fell one win short against the Cardinals to really change the dynamic heading into the break.
Making matters even murkier for a bubble team like the Cubs is the fact that this market is looking more like a sellers’ market than it was a month ago. Previous “obvious” sellers like the Mets, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Rays, and even the Astros have all heated up over the past month, which dries up the potential pool of available players while increasing prices. And that means that if the Cubs don’t find themselves in a CLEAR position to buy, then selling might be even more attractive than usual. And that means it’s not just a string of losses that could force them in that direction – a middling week after the break could push them to sell, as well.
Cubs Schedule Out of the Break
And although that easier schedule is still coming, it’s not happening right away.
Immediately after the break, the Cubs will begin a six-game homestand against the Diamondbacks and Brewers with significant ramifications on the playoff race(s). And after that, they hit the road for a three-game series against a good Royals team before heading to Cincinnati to face the Reds.
To put an even finer point on it, there are 10 games between now and the deadline. And it’s not like the Cubs can wait ENTIRELY up to the buzzer to make all of their moves/pick a path, so these first two series are critical. Taking AT LEAST four of six is pretty much required. Falling short of that and, well …
Who Could Be Available
There are always so many more players – especially relievers – available and discussed than are actually traded. But among the biggest names, you’ll find …
(CBS Sports has a nice breakdown of 30 players they see as available and their potential suitors, if you’re looking for more).
Cubs’ Needs and Inventory
If the Cubs do wind up in a position to buy at the deadline, the bullpen is an obvious area of focus, even as it has played up over the past month or so. Relievers are the easiest pieces to acquire and there are always a ton of arms available. But the Cubs could also stand to add to their lineup, either at catchers, DH, or potentially third base.
If the Cubs wind up as sellers, their trade chips are a little harder to discern. Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman were theoretical candidates once upon a time, but both are out injured at the moment. Meanwhile, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have no-trade clauses. That said, Nico ho*rner, Jameson Taillon, and literally any reliever could all make sense. And if the Cubs got really aggressive, they could look to move one of their starting pitchers (Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Kyle Hendricks, etc.).
Trading Justin Steele would be a mistake, but he’s arguably their most attractive trade chip. Trading Jordan Wicks or Ben Brown feels very unlikely.
Earlier this month, I dove deeper into the Cubs roster seeking trade candidates, if you want more on that convo.
So that’s where we are. The Cubs need to win and win fast to avoid a sell-off. And it all starts this Friday against Arizona. Buckle up!
